2024 Holiday Shopping Forecast: The Impact of AI, Election Season, and More

Attentive's 2024 holiday shopping predictions for retailers and e-commerce
Published on
Sep 18, 2024
Written by
Keri McGhee
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Will changing consumer behaviors and new marketing innovations transform the shopping experience this holiday season?

The anticipation and preparation for the holiday season is well underway for many. Starbucks released their famous PSL in August. Harrods in the UK has opened their Christmas Shop earlier than ever before. And creators are abuzz with fall content. 

This holiday season is already bubbling under the surface, fueled by a series of global and local events that promise to reshape consumer behavior and spending habits. 

The 2024 holiday season won’t just be about the usual rush of gift buying and festive preparations. It's going to be about navigating a complex web of consumer expectations and market dynamics. 

Ultimately, the thing that makes this year most different from previous years is the unique combination of the macro environment, an election season, and AI really becoming mainstream for both brands and consumers.

Here’s where we’re setting our sights. 

AI will enhance personalization and efficiency

For marketers, their busiest time, the holiday season, is also the time when they’re expected to be the most creative. Thankfully, AI has continued to revolutionize the industry by enabling hyper-personalization and increasing operational efficiency. And you can bet it'll continue to do so throughout the 2024 holiday season, giving marketers more time to concentrate on those creative campaigns. 

Attentive has dedicated well over 18 months to the development, testing, and validation of our cutting-edge AI products and features. We lead the market in AI-powered marketing solutions, ensuring the highest message performance. 

During Cyber Week 2023, Attentive generated a staggering $1.8 billion in online sales for brands. 45% of brands on the Attentive platform used Attentive AI™ to create personalized messages for their customers. This led to over 218 million AI-driven messages being sent during Cyber Week.

AI will enhance SMS personalization this holiday season

With our AI Pro products, you can opt for the tools you want to help you tap into your customer data. Easily anticipate the desires and actions of your customers, discover untapped audiences, and communicate with tailored messages for optimal results—without any extra workflows.

  • Audiences AI segments and targets your customers more intelligently to boost ROI
  • Identity AI reliably recognizes more site traffic to drive more revenue
  • Send Time AI will message your customers when they want to hear from you
  • Brand Voice fine-tunes messages with your brand’s unique tone and style

With the ongoing rise in mobile shopping, we’re expecting that 90% of brands will use Attentive AI-influenced messages during the upcoming holiday season. And for good reason. 

74% of consumers abandon purchasing decisions simply because they feel overwhelmed by the volume of choice. According to Accenture’s consumer pulse research, clothing and beauty products are some of the top categories shoppers are walking away from due to overwhelm. 

This is where the power of AI really shines. With AI, brands can focus on curating the best shopping experience, surfacing personalized recommendations and reaching shoppers at their most likely time to buy, all without adding more work to your plate.

Building the correct segments is time-consuming and open to human error, but AI Pro takes all the guesswork out of it and delivers the results we're looking for. This ability to better identify and communicate with our audience will be our key to driving success in the upcoming holiday season.

- Megan Edwards, Senior Manager of CRM at Tecovas

For those looking for validation, look no further than the real results AI is already delivering for brands

Not to mention, consumers welcome AI-powered messages from brands. With search and shopping behaviors changing, brands have the opportunity to deliver superior, just-in-time experiences via email and SMS.

The US election season won't sway shoppers like we thought

According to eMarkater, political ad spend will hit $12.32 billion this year—nearly three times what it was in 2016. During the crowded US election season, traditional auction-based advertising platforms are expected to become saturated with political ads, leading to higher costs and lower visibility for non-political advertisers. 

This has caused a lot of tension for marketers. Due to these record-breaking budgets, brands are no longer just competing with each other. Now they must contend with these incredibly well-funded political campaigns who are just as eager to capture consumers’ distracted attention. 

Here’s ‌the good news—most consumers say that political ads won't change how they see other ads. In fact, shoppers will think of them as a nice break from the political noise. 

But political campaigns aren’t just taking over ad space. They’re in customer inboxes and coming through via text messages. 

Marketers concerned about cutting through the noise can breathe easy, in a recent consumer survey of 600+ US adults aged 18+, we found 80% of customers still want brands to text them with deals and discounts throughout the election season

72% of respondents shared that they expect their mobile phone usage to remain consistent during the election. 

Now to answer the big question. Are consumers concerned about spending during this uncertain time? In short, no. 

59% of consumers said the election won’t impact their holiday shopping plans. Another 26% of respondents said if they got a good offer or discount they would buy no matter the timing. 

These numbers all point to the same conclusion–while consumers are going to be glued to the their phones (and no doubt, inundated with political advertising), they’re still looking for the relevant touchpoints from brands. If you really want to stand out, we recommend setting up an SMS contact card

Attentive Mobile recommends setting up an SMS contact card

Contact cards contain your company's contact information and let subscribers save your number as a contact in their phones with an associated image and other information. Contact cards help increase brand recognition and engagement by making your messages feel more personalized, something these political campaigns tend to overlook. 

These direct communication methods will allow you to maintain engagement with personalized and targeted messaging, effectively cutting through the noise of political advertising. 

Consumers are still spending, but the macro environment will continue to necessitate value-driven strategies

According to Forrester's The State Of The US Holiday Shopper, in 2023, nearly 25% of US online adults started shopping for the 2023 holiday season in October or earlier, and 42% wrapped up their holiday shopping after December 16. 

This year, we’re expecting the holiday season to start early again. And we’re hearing similar sentiments from marketers. Digital marketing agency Director of Partnerships and Client Solutions, Ryan Garrow, believes that the number of consumers shopping before December will be even higher at 80%.

Part of the reasoning for this is the shorter holiday season between Thanksgiving and Christmas. If you’re not already, start educating on value now to make sure they are reaching those early shoppers

Whether through competitive pricing, superior quality, unique in-store experiences, or sustainability efforts, emphasizing what sets your brand apart can help capture the attention of shoppers looking to make the most of their holiday budgets.

There’s lots of room for optimism: Although there are concerns about the economy, major credit card companies are still experiencing robust transaction volumes and payment growth, and consumers are also prioritizing spending experiences. The travel industry, for example, is expecting a strong season. 

Create strategies based on what your target audience values and how it aligns with your offerings, and keep in mind the impact of generational variances on consumer purchasing habits. When building your strategy, consider that Gen Z tends to procrastinate on their shopping more than other generations and Millennials are the most deal-hungry generation

Understanding when and how to jump on a trend can lead to success

In today's rapidly evolving digital world, keeping up with trends is essential. According to research conducted by Bazaarvoice, brands who integrate popular themes into their campaigns see a noteworthy rise in audience participation, with an average increase of 25%. However, it's crucial to keep in mind that not every trend is for every brand.  

So how can you prepare for these hot moments? The truth is, we don’t know when the next meme or moment will be, ever. This holiday season, it could be influenced by the election, or it could be another creator having a moment like “demure.

Trends that resonate with audiences today might lose their impact just as quickly, so it’s essential to adapt rapidly, continuously monitor social media, events, and cultural shifts to stay ahead of the curve.

Because these moments are so unpredictable, it may be worth leaving some room in your planning to include them in your marketing where it makes sense. Though oftentimes, it may not. 

If you do find yourself leveraging a trend, find a way to make it unique to your brand. You don’t want to get lost in the social frenzy.

Attentive brands take part in the demure trend

Hours after “demure” began trending, we watched brands start to get onboard. We saw 45+ unique texts with “very demure, very mindful” in the copy by the second week of the trend. 

This holiday season promises not only challenges but also significant opportunities for those who can adeptly navigate these trends. Brands that can effectively use these insights and adapt to the shifting demands will likely find themselves at a competitive advantage, capturing the hearts and wallets of the modern consumer. 

Looking to get a head start? Take a look at The Complete BFCM Archive and let us know how we can help!

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